EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 06, 2021
May 6, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +60 bcf injection, 1 bcf greater than our call of +59 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +65 bcf. Using the recently released 2018 EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), we wanted to estimate the effect of supply chain disruptions in the automotive industry on industrial gas demand. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +79, +62, +102, +97 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +340 bcf, compared to +396 bcf for the sam.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 29, 2021
April 29, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +15 bcf injection, 13 bcf greater than our call of +2 bcf and and 6 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +9 bcf. Based on the sentiment of recent earnings calls, we had no reason to doubt the trend of smaller than expected storage injections would change given the positive momentum in demand that is expected to carry into the summer. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +57, +83, +90, +88 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +318 bcf,.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 22, 2021
April 22, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +38 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of +46 bcf and and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of +47 bcf. This morning, Dow hosted their 1Q2021 earnings call. The numerous comments on improving market conditions and results that beat month-old guidance, which we had utilized to construct last month's more bearish view, appears to be a case of "undersell, overdeliver". Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +9, +56, +77, +75 bcf over the next four w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 15, 2021
April 15, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +61 bcf withdrawal, 10 bcf less than our call of +71 bcf and and 6 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of +67 bcf. As noted in today’s NG Morning Summary, we have revised the methodology used in estimating daily Mexican exports, which we detail in this report. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +50, +31, +78, +74 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +233 bcf, compared to +321 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +267 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 08, 2021
April 8, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +20 bcf withdrawal, 2 bcf less than our call of +22 bcf and 2 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +22 bcf. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +72, +80, +69, +83 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +304 bcf, compared to +285 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +211 bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 01, 2021
April 1, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a +14 bcf withdrawal, 7 bcf greater than our call of +21 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +19 bcf. We see over-performing production as the main bearish summertime risk on the supply side. If large public companies that are expected to remain disciplined are already tracking to beat 2-month old production targets, then we’d expect private firms to become overachievers as well. A factor that can mitigate this and support a more bullish thesis for summer 2.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 25, 2021
March 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -36 bcf withdrawal, 16 bcf greater than our call of -20 bcf and 14 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -22 bcf. It appears that provided data contained misleading storage activity for some facilities during the reference week. Most notably, the 47 bcf (working gas) Blue Lake storage facility in Kalkaska County, Michigan, showed zero storage activity during the reference week. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: +14, +28, +39, +49 bcf over the nex.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 19, 2021
March 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -11 bcf withdrawal, in-line with our call and 7 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -18 bcf. February’s winter storm is proving to be quite significant and the fallout will likely continue to drag down industrial demand for natural gas into the start of the injection season. From this week's JP Morgan Industrials Conference, we have gained some further insight into the the ongoing recovery and corresponding supply chain disruptions, some of which could stretch out int.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 11, 2021
March 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -52 bcf withdrawal, 11 bcf more than our call of -41 bcf and 26 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -78 bcf. Our four-week forecast implies that storage inventories will reach ~1.7 tcf by the end of March. Barring the materialization of colder weather, the current forecast at this point in the season does not seem to provide much of an upside for increased storage draws. There are however a couple of factors that could support some incremental demand over the next few.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 04, 2021
March 4, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -98 bcf withdrawal, 39 bcf less than our call of -137 bcf and 44 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -142 bcf. Rather than discrediting the EIA’s reported inventory change and wait for a revision (which may or may not come), we will walk through how to find an incremental 30-35 bcf in South Central and then let our readers decide whether such a scenario is probable. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -55, -48, -49, -13 bcf over the next four weeks .....