EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 25, 2021
February 25, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -338 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -346 bcf and 4 bcf more than the Bloomberg median of -334 bcf. As we shift our focus to the summer, we also wish to highlight a few key takeaways from earnings calls which lead us to believe that production (or at least production capacity) may surprise us to the upside in the injection season. Our models are currently showing storage activity of: -143, -62, -56, -51 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -312 bcf, .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 19, 2021
February 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal, 1 bcf less than our call of -238 bcf and 15 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -252 bcf. We wish to reign in our excitement about a close call of the EIA’s reported withdrawal on account of two factors... When it comes to playing a blame game, numbers and stats can help us make any case we wish. For example, we can highlight that between Monday and Wednesday (inclusive), natural gas reached its highest share (65+%) of ERCOT power generation in at.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 11, 2021
February 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -171 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -179 bcf and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -180 bcf. A combination of supply and demand strains has left Oklahoma short gas for tomorrow and caused next day gas prices across MidCon to spike dramatically higher, led by the $85/mmbtu print for OneOK (OGT). The incoming frigid weather creates two factors that may help the gas market not be as tight as weather forecasts and supply side predictions (i.e. freeze-offs.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 04, 2021
February 4, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -192 bcf withdrawal, 9 bcf greater than our call of -183 bcf and 3 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -195 bcf. Data from the latest Natural Gas Monthly brought some surprises, including discrepancies between the reported weekly and monthly inventory changes. Our updated balances show a slight increase in CY21 vs CY20 natural gas production, with Permian and Haynesville likely to provide more upside under the right conditions. Our models are currently showing storage.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 28, 2021
January 28, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -128 bcf withdrawal, 7 bcf less than our call of -135 bcf and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -137 bcf. Over the next few weeks, we will be sharing some of the tools we developed that give us better insight into coal stocks at the plant level. Today, we will start with six charts that put various coal ranks into perspective. Our models are currently showing activity of: -185, -179, -184, -177 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -725 bcf, compared to -56.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 22, 2021
January 22, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -187 bcf withdrawal, 3 bcf less than our call of -190 bcf and 10 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -177 bcf. As much as recent news and developments targeting our industry may come across as demoralizing, Charlie Munger’s wisdom shared with Caltech Alumni provides insight into how midstream can survive and thrive even – or especially – in the current environment. Our models are currently showing activity of: -134, -175, -138, -165 bcf over the next four weeks fo.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 14, 2021
January 14, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -134 bcf withdrawal, 6 bcf greater than our call of -128 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -129 bcf. While the impact we attributed to the New Year’s Day holiday effect may have been stronger than what actually materialized, the startup of the 2 bcf/d Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) on January 1, 2021 represents the largest unknown that may have affected our estimates. With this being said, we are unsure of how much gas PHP has been moving since the star.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 07, 2021
January 7, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -130 bcf withdrawal, 4 bcf less than our call of -134 bcf and 5 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -135 bcf. Our miss of the EIA’s total withdrawal and skew of regional estimates can be attributed to the underappreciation of one or multiple of the factors which we shall lay out here, namely, record high flows to South Central from the Northeast on the ‘T’ pipes, record high wind generation in ERCOT, and the ‘holiday effect’ of Christmas and the New Year. After the ne.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 31, 2020
December 31, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -114 bcf withdrawal, 7 bcf less than our call of -121 bcf and 14 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -128 bcf. We believe that at least some looseness in this week's number can be attributed to the ‘holiday effect’, as the draw encompasses the lead up to and part of the Christmas Day holiday. However, even with generous leeway, this week’s number is not as tight as the previous 2 weeks would suggest. As for our own estimate, while it may have underappreciated the holi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 23, 2020
December 23, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -152 bcf withdrawal, 4 bcf less than our call of -156 bcf and 11 bcf below the Bloomberg median of -163 bcf. The sum of our East and Midwest was quite close, with remaining regions off by small amounts. To our surprise, Y/Y surpluses in the East and Midwest have remained relatively stable since mid-November at 38 bcf and 76 bcf, respectively. We had previously noted that the final two weeks of December were going to be important for two reasons: First, it was going to p.....