EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 17, 2020
December 17, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -122 bcf build for the reference week , 6 bcf less than our call of -128 bcf and equal to the Bloomberg median of -122 bcf. The recent tightness suggests that the step-down in storage withdrawals may have shown up at a lower temperature threshold than in previous seasons, and if so,would imply further tightness in the market relative to this season’s trendline through the colder months of the winter. Our models are currently showing activity of: -153, -147, -175, -197 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 10, 2020
December 10, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -91 bcf build for the reference week , 11 bcf greater than our call of -80 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -86 bcf. The reason behind inferior regional withdrawal estimates provided by most flow-based models (where storage activity is directly measured) can be traced back to evolving seasonal trends in interregional gas movements between the Northeast / Southeast and Midwest / South Central. Our models are currently showing activity of: -121, -140, -1.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 03, 2020
December 3, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -1 bcf build for the reference week , 4 bcf less than our call of +3 bcf and 15 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -16 bcf. With OPEC+ appearing set to coordinate the gradual easing of production curtailments, we will be less likely to see any surprises that pose significant downward pressure on oil prices in the upcoming months - at least from that direction. Our models are currently showing activity of: -72, -103, -126, -156 bcf over the next four weeks for a t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 25, 2020
November 25, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -18 bcf build for the reference week , 3 bcf less than our call of -21 bcf and 1 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -19 bcf. Our models are currently showing activity of: +2, -77, -127, -139 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -341 bcf, compared to -322 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of -334 bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 19, 2020
November 19, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +31 bcf build for the reference week , 4 bcf greater than our call of +27 bcf and 11 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of +20 bcf. Earlier this week, the EIA released its preliminary findings of the 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS). From this, we see that more than half of commercial square footage risks facing covid-related usage restrictions. Our models are currently showing activity of: -25, -19, -51, -96 bcf over the next four weeks f.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 13, 2020
November 13, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +8 bcf build for the reference week , 12 bcf greater than our call of -4 bcf and 11 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -3 bcf. In addition to volumetric information, recent mine level data reveals a new dynamic between mines and coal plants. Given this evolving dynamic as the coal market gets “thinner”, break-even models for gas-to-coal switching may become less accurate, including this winter. Our models are currently showing activity of: +19, -57, -67, -91 bcf .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 05, 2020
November 5, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -36 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf greater than our call of -34 bcf and 5 bcf greater than the Bloomberg median of -31 bcf. As of this morning, the GWHDD estimate for the month of November has dropped to 471 GWHDDs, so far setting the month up to be 2nd mildest November (behind 2016) in the past 10 years. Our models are currently showing activity of: -4, +27, -31, -69 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -77 bcf, compared to -123 bcf for the same perio.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 29, 2020
October 29, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +29 bcf build for the reference week , 8 bcf lower than our call of +37 bcf and 9 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +38 bcf. The “outlier” effect of South Central's draw is set to be exacerbated in the coming weeks, where we will see the first “decisive” withdrawal from US storage inventories before we enter November. As we enter a new season, we are including Summer 2021 balances. Our models are currently showing activity of: -21, -20, -7, -62 bcf over the next fo.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 22, 2020
October 22, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +49 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf higher than our call of +47 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +52 bcf. We were surprised with EQT’s operational activity during 3Q20, in particular the number of PA Marcellus horizontal wells that were Turned-In-Line (TIL) during 3Q20. This could be interpreted in two ways... Our models are currently showing injections of: +33, -7, -21, -34 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -29 bcf, compared to +84 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 15, 2020
October 15, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +46 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf lower than our call of +48 bcf and 5 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +51 bcf. Two weeks ago in our forward balances, we published the smallest October injection followed by the largest November draw on storage inventories in the last 5 years. The size of the deviation from the recent historical average is something we wish to draw attention to, however we add a note of caution to our forward looking weekly estimates. O.....