EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 08, 2020
October 8, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +75 bcf build for the reference week , 4 bcf higher than our call of +71 bcf and 3 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +72 bcf. In this commentary, we aim to address the potential downside risks Hurricane Delta brings to Henry Hub cash prices and the November contract. Our models are currently showing injections of: +47, +65, +31, +12 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +155 bcf, compared to +332 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average o.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 01, 2020
October 1, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +76 bcf build for the reference week , equal to our call as well as the Bloomberg median. We believe that the current weakness in cash is due to the way storage field operators manage the risk of congestion. With at least one month of injections remaining and an additional 250+ bcf expected to be put underground, operators are very selective in the way they make the limited remaining space available to customers (salts & non-salts). They also want to preserve their quic.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 24, 2020
September 24, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +66 bcf build for the reference week , 6 bcf lower than our call of +72 bcf and 11 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +77 bcf. The October contract followed cash down but has made a swift recovery over the last two days as TS Beta turned out to be a non-event in terms of persistent demand destruction... Our models are currently showing injections of: +79, +70, +59, +52 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +260 bcf, compared to +405 bcf for the same period la.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 17, 2020
September 17, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +89 bcf build for the reference week , 8 bcf higher than our call of +81 bcf and 12 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +77 bcf. We believe that the pressure on cash prices yesterday and today is driven by a squeeze on park and loan volumes that are forced to get out of salt facilities with no place to go. Today's commentary contains our thought process and the associated events that led us to that conclusion. Our models are currently showing injections of: +70, +83.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 10, 2020
September 10, 2020
Dear , Note: This week's report includes extended EIA and Canadian storage tables. The EIA reported a +70 bcf build for the reference week , 2 bcf lower than our call of +72 bcf and 2 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +68 bcf. The damage sustained by the electrical grid in Southwestern Louisiana is impeding other industrial operations in the region, such as refineries around Lake Charles, from resuming operations. The damage will continue to affect the Gulf Coast into early October, eviden.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 03, 2020
September 3, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +35 bcf build for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +33 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +36 bcf. As reports of the damage inflicted by Hurricane Laura came in, we focused on consumers of natural gas to estimate the extent of demand destruction. That caused us to be foolishly optimistic as it is the severe damage sustained by Entergy’s power transmission and distribution system that will ultimately determine the losses. Our models are cur.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 20, 2020
August 20, 2020
Dear , Note: The EIA NG Storage Report will return Thursday, September 3, 2020. The EIA reported a +43 bcf build for the reference week, equal to our call of +43 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +42 bcf. Our models are currently showing injections of: +44, +38, +61, +79 bcf over the next four weeks for a total of +222 bcf, compared to a +299 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average of +261 bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 13, 2020
August 13, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +58 bcf build for the reference week, 4 bcf higher than our call of +54 bcf and 2 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +56 bcf. The high inventories in the Midwest and South Central entering the shoulder months may set up for injectability issues later on in the season. Factors that can offer outlets for these regions, particularly in South Central, are lower associated gas production, returning industrial demand, and returning LNG exports... Our models are currently.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 06, 2020
August 6, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +33 bcf build for the reference week, 5 bcf higher than our call of +28 bcf and 3 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +30 bcf. Looking at this week’s price action, we initially asked ourselves what we now perceive as a poorly-worded question... Given the sudden and extended move, we now believe a better question would have been: “was the $1.799/mmbtu price level for the September contract justified?” Our models are currently showing injections of: +53, +34, +30, +55.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 30, 2020
July 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +26 bcf build for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +24 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +21 bcf. “I am a little bit worried about gas prices, particularly moving into winter and next summer..." "Producers hoping and praying those stronger ’21 gas prices are basically betting the balance sheet on winter, and that is a risky proposition.” CNX sounded extremely confident in its ability to push incremental volumes to the market if / when de.....