EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 23, 2020
July 23, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +37 bcf build for the reference week, 2 bcf lower than our call of +39 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +36 bcf. We wanted to revisit and comment on some of our outlooks we have made since the beginning of the pandemic using the insight gained from 2Q20 railroad operations and cross-reference that macro information with operational benchmarks provided by individual energy-focused firms... With EIA data showing a 4% drop in April industrial demand and ra.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 16, 2020
July 16, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a +45 bcf build for the reference week, 1 bcf lower than our call of +46 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +48 bcf.... Turkey, TX registered a maximum temperature of... For the first 15 days of July, our estimates show gas burns for power have averaged... Figures 1-9 below show generation, capacity utilization, and market share for CCGT, total coal and wind by month since 2013... Our models are currently showing injections of: +38, +17, +15, +45 bcf over .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 09, 2020
July 9, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +56 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +54 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +57 bcf. The NEXUS / Texas Eastern MR03 meter may be distorting measurement of NEXUS exports from OH to MI to the tune of 1.0 bcf/d, depending on the attribution and / or methodology used. The dynamic of NEXUS’ leased capacity on TETCO's system is reflected in the reporting by both pipelines, while other pipelines may not reflect.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 02, 2020
July 2, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +65 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 7 bcf lower than our call of +72 bcf and 8 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +73 bcf. We have been talking about wellbore (virtual) storage for a few years now, and theory will meet practice this fall and early winter. We previously used a car analogy (AMG E63S Station Wagon) to explain the productive capacity of US gas shale plays – we’ll need to “floor it” as peak winter months approach.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 25, 2020
June 25, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +120 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 6 bcf higher than our call of +114 bcf and 11 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +109 bcf. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked” (Warren Buffet). We believe that high gas-fired power generation numbers in the previous weeks have been masking the extent of the demand destruction caused by the global pandemic. This week, the tide went out.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 18, 2020
June 18, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +85 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 3 bcf lower than our call of +88 bcf and 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +84 bcf. We have been feeling increasingly uncomfortable with some of the estimates our primary data source provides and decided to compare their numbers to those of two other vendors (Figure 1). As the beginning of the injection season pretty much overlaps with restrictions imposed due to Covid-19, we decided to use season-to-da.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 11, 2020
June 11, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +93 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 4 bcf higher than our call of +89 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +94 bcf. This week, we look to the legal challenges faced by the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects in light of last week's changes by the Trump Administration and the EPA to regulatory policy. This includes an imminent Supreme Court decision on the future of both projects and Winter 2020/21 balances an.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 04, 2020
June 4, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +102 bcf injection into inventories for the reference week, 2 bcf lower than our call of +104 bcf and 9 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +111 bcf. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow shows a -53.8% GDP growth estimate for 2Q20, which points to a more severe contraction than consensus expectation. We simply believe that the depth as well as the deviation from the consensus makes this a plastic deformation in terms of the economic cycles and it will take a while to climb out .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 28, 2020
May 28, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +109 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 9 bcf higher than our call of +100 bcf and 5 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median of +104 bcf. Our misses this week in the East and Midwest regions were larger than we would enjoy, however we were weary of weeks like this coming (as we mentioned on Tuesday) as our balancing items in both regions have grown since April... Our models are currently showing injections of: +103, +108, +82, +79 bcf over the next four .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 22, 2020
May 21, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported an +81 bcf injection into inventory for the reference week, 2 bcf higher than our call of +81 bcf and 3 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median of +84 bcf. Our updated seasonal balances are included in this week's issue. South Central – the only region where we overestimated builds this week – has a high level of uncertainty in both supply and demand dynamics as the estimates rely on modelling...If the miss was primarily on the supply side, the most likely explanation is th.....