EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 20, 2020
[EDITED] March 19, 2020
Note: We edited the report for style and minor wording changes. None of numbers were changed. Both the original and edited copies can be accessed through the links. Dear , The EIA reported a -9 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 1 bcf lower than our call of -10 bcf and 4 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. In this week’s report, we quantify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on US natural gas balances based on the experiences of China and Italy. This exercise is built upon the guidel.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 12, 2020
March 12, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -48 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 10 bcf lower than our call of -58 bcf and 7 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. Over the past few days, we received multiple client inquiries about the impact of lower oil prices on natural gas balances. More specifically, we were asked to quantify potential losses in associated gas volumes as a result of lower oil prices...
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 05, 2020
March 5, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -109 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 7 bcf lower than our call of -116 bcf and 1 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. The COVID-19 outbreak may have lowered state-side industrial demand in recent weeks as a knock-on effect of reduced activity in Asian destination markets. The reduction in Asian market activity is well-illustrated through satellite imagery in a video published by the New York Times. Our models are currently showing withdrawals of: -55, -17, -1.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 27, 2020
February 27, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -143 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 15 bcf lower than our call of -158 bcf and 15 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median. Friday, February 14th was a very cold day in the Midwest, setting the highest demand day of the year across the footprint. The resulting sharp increase in space heating demand likely meant that molecules destined for gas-fired power plants were displaced. As a result, with limited gas-fired electric generation capacity available for dispat.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 20, 2020
February 20, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -151 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 2 bcf higher than our call of -149 bcf and 6 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Our models are currently showing withdrawals of: -147, -126,-156, -93bcf over the next four weeks for a total of -523bcf, compared to a -595 bcf for the same period last year and the five-year average draw of -403bcf.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 13, 2020
February 13, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -115 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 1 bcf higher than our call of -114 bcf and 4 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Our previous week’s commentary highlighted new petrochemical demand coming online as a potential driver behind stronger than expected withdrawals in the region. Stronger petrochemical and plastics volumes reported in railroad earnings calls supported that hypothesis.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 06, 2020
February 6, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -137 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week, 6 bcf higher than our call of -131 bcf and 7 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. South Central posted another large draw from Non-Salt fields, only 3 bcf lower than 5-year records, which is surprising given the milder reference week. While the majority of producers are yet to report their 4Q19 earnings and elaborate on their 2020 plans, once-removed players already provided some insight into 2020 E&P Capex allocations. .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 30, 2020
January 30, 2020
Dear , The EIA reported a -201 bcf withdrawal from inventories this week. This was 2 bcf lower than the Bloomberg median and 5 bcf lower than our call. Relative to the same week in the previous 5 years, South Central posted record draws for Salt and equaled record draws for Non-Salt inventories. A further examination of week-on-week pricing and flow volumes on Transco would have helped us better calibrate the breakdown between the two regions, by reminding us of a bygone era where Transco “ser.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 23, 2020
January 23, 2020
The EIA reported a -92 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 3 bcf larger draw than the Bloomberg median and 1 bcf higher than our expectations... At the regional level, this is the second week in a row where our non-salt South Central estimates fell short of the EIA-reported draw. Only a small portion of those fields are visible through pipeline flows, and at this point it is not clear to us whether the strong draws are due to contractual/operational obligations or strong demand triggered by.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 16, 2020
January 16, 2020
The EIA reported a -109 bcf decrease in inventories this week, a 13 bcf larger draw than the Bloomberg median and 12 bcf higher than our expectations. Our East, Mountain and salt dome estimates were in line with the released numbers. We underestimated South Central non-salts, Midwest and Pacific draws. One Midwest model showed -34 bcf, and we labeled it an outlier. Pacific and South Central non-salt pulls were beyond the range of our models’ output. As access to capital becomes more difficult – .....