EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 07, 2018
June 7, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +92 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was 1 bcf lower than our estimate and 2 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is a build in the low-90 bcf range. A rupture on Columbia pipeline today resulted in a 1.3 bcf/d supply loss on the new Leach Xpress pipeline…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 31, 2018
May 31, 2018
The EIA reported a +96 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was 6 bcf lower than both our estimate and the Bloomberg median. The error in our models mainly came from overestimating injections in the South Central this week. Our preliminary estimate for next week’s number is an injection is in the low to mid-90 bcf range. Today the FERC responded to Rover’s request to bring on Mainline B, Supply Connector B, the Majorsville supply lateral and the Burgettstown supply latera.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 24, 2018
May 24, 2018
The EIA reported a +91 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was 4 bcf lower than our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. Our models overestimated the injections in the Midwest and South Central, both regions which experienced above seasonal power burns during the reference week. This may suggest our regional balance models are underestimating power burns and overestimating injections, something we will further investigate in the coming week. Our preliminary estima.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 17, 2018
May 17, 2018
The EIA reported a +106 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was in line with our estimate and 1 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Regionally our overestimates in the South Central and Mountain were offset by our underestimates in the East and Midwest. A strengthening winter strip in the Rockies hints at market expectations of tighter winter balances…
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 10, 2018
May 10, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +89 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was 9 bcf weaker than our estimate and 1 bcf weaker than the Bloomberg median. Regionally our largest miss was in the South Central where we overestimated the build by 7 bcf. While some of our overestimate of storage injections in the South Central could have been due to underestimating power burns in the reg.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 03, 2018
May 3, 2018
The EIA reported a +62 bcf net change in inventory this week. The injection was +8 bcf stronger than our estimate and +10 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Our largest misses this week were in the Midwest, East and surprisingly the Pacific. The dramatic shifts in weather during this shoulder season and our underestimates of draws over that last two weeks led us to apply a downward weighting to this week’s estimates for the East and Midwest – a bias which came back to bite us this week......
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 26, 2018
April 26, 2018
The EIA reported a -18 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was +5 bcf stronger than our estimate and +6 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Regionally our largest miss was in the Midwest where the draw was larger than estimated. Both our models underestimated the Midwest this week: our regional balance model likely had difficulties estimating the high shoulder season RCI demand, while our flow model probably missed some behind utility storage pulls in Michigan (the jump in Mi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 19, 2018
April 19, 2018
The EIA reported a -36 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was 5 bcf stronger than our estimate and 10 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Our current estimate for next week is another draw, this time in the mid-teens. Based on shifts in flow patterns we knew the South Central number was going to make or break our estimate this week. Much colder than normal weather in the Northeast (NE) and Midwest (MW) resulted in a large downward swing in flows to the Gulf (figure 1). What .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 12, 2018
April 12, 2018
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -19 bcf net change in inventory this week. The draw was higher than both our estimate and the Bloomberg median by 7 bcf. Our current estimate for next week is a draw in the mid-30s. The bust in our models came from our Midwest estimate, where both our flow and regional models showed significantly lower estimates compared to the reported number. What caused the e.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 05, 2018
April 5, 2018
The EIA reported a -29 bcf net change in inventory this week, but implied flow out of storage was only -20 bcf due to a reclassification in non-salt fields in the South Central. The net change was in line with our estimate but implied flow was way off. Bloomberg median was at -26 bcf, with average expectation at -27 bcf. As of this morning, most pipelines are once again reporting scheduled volumes. Many storage facilities, however, still have not backfilled their activity data, whic.....