EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 19, 2018
January 18, 2018
Over the past two weeks, we discussed the potential impact of a cold February on inventories and futures prices. We argued that heavy reliance on salt domes through the first half of January strained those high deliverability sources of supply, making late-winter deliverability profiles less robust, which in turned made the market more susceptible to price spikes in case of late-season cold. Today, we cover all North American inventories to see whether the market has alternative sources of suppl.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2018
January 11, 2018
The extent of mechanical failures freeze-offs cause may not be evident at first look. Unlike a simplistic flow/no-flow event, freeze-offs can be destructive to infrastructure and may require significant time and resources to recover from. Potential damages to pipes alone can range from cracked water pipes – which may cause an environmental nightmare – to natural gas hydrates breaking through a gas line. In last week’s report, we laid out a scenario about how a one standard deviation cold Febru.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 05, 2018
January 4, 2018
A one standard deviation colder than the 30-yr normal February – similar to the one in 2015 – could potentially draw salt domes to an all-time low of 31 bcf by March 8, compared to the minima of 54 bcf observed on March 7, 2014. Such an extreme level can be diverted via the supply side by a rapid fill of new pipeline capacity (namely Rover and Leach Xpress) with new production, or by incremental imports from Canada. If the supply side fails to balance the market, prices have to increase further .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 28, 2017
December 28, 2017
The EIA reported a -112 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 21st, the reported volume was just 1 bcf lighter than our estimate and the Bloomberg median. While our headline estimate was close to the reported -113 bcf, the regional breakdown did not perform as expected, with the biggest misses in the Midwest and South Central canceling each other. We have been tracking season-to-date cumulative GWHDDs versus the six warmest and six coldest winters since the winter of 1970-71. The “perf.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 21, 2017
December 21, 2017
The EIA reported a -182 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 14th, the total withdrawal was 3 bcf more than our estimate and 7 bcf more than the Bloomberg median of -175 bcf. The stronger than expected pulls in the Northeast were most likely due to a combination of cold weather and high export levels from the region. The regional balances suggest that export levels remained strong during the reference week, despite the cold weather. Price points tied to supply like TETCO M2 and Domi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 14, 2017
December 14, 2017
The EIA reported a -69 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 7th, this was 9 bcf stronger than our expectation and was 8 bcf stronger than the Bloomberg median. Almost all the error in our estimate this week was in the South Central region. Faulty assumptions around salt and non-salt dynamics and low visibility around non-salt nominations led our model to underestimate the extent of the large shift from injections to withdrawals in the South Central this week. The fact that non-salt st.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 07, 2017
December 7, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +2 bcf injection for the week ending November 30th, this was contrary to our expectations of -2 bcf draw and the Bloomberg median estimate of a -4 bcf draw. We expected the South Central to be the wild card this week and it didn’t disappoint, injecting enough gas to offset the mild withdrawals from the remaining regions, resulting in the net injection that was r.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 30, 2017
November 30, 2017
The EIA reported a -33 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 23rd, the number was -4 bcf weaker than our estimate and -2 bcf weaker than the Bloomberg median. The regions where we overestimated this week’s draw were the East and South Central. In the East, it appears that despite warmer temperatures week over week, strong basis prices kept exports from returning to the highs observed at the beginning of the month. With basis prices remaining strong, storage pulls were much quicker to r.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 22, 2017
November 22, 2017
The EIA reported a -46 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 16th, the number was -2 bcf below our estimate and +9 bcf above the Bloomberg median. Despite our estimate being fairly close to the EIA’s total this week, our regional balances were somewhat off in the Midwest. Both our flow model and regional model underestimated the pull from Midwest storage. It’s likely that utilities and intrastate storage pools we can’t track pulled stronger than expected. Based on the sudden week over .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 16, 2017
November 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -18 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 9th, the number was -13 bcf below our estimate and -3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The transition from the injection to withdrawal season is always tricky and this year proved to be no different. Given the wide range of estimates from our storage models, we decided to rely on our regional Midwest flow model. That estimate relies on measured flows in and out of the region, modeling demand to solve for weekly inventory chang.....